Rational Choices and Selective Cooperation: A Rational Actor Model Analysis of Pakistan-Russia Relations

Abstract

Despite repeated attempts to upgrade bilateral relationships over more than three decades, Russia and Pakistan have not been able to achieve milestones except for breaking a thaw in their ties. Russia is believed to have a clear tilt towards India and to avoid taking steps that can annoy New Delhi while engaging with Pakistan. However, its tilt towards India and the lack of formidable relations with Pakistan, based on strong foundations in defence and the economy, can better be understood in terms of the utility maximization of these countries for each other. When Russia and Pakistan see their utility for accomplishing national interests, they become natural partners. This trend sees selective cooperation between Pakistan and Russia, even when one takes the Indian factor as a constant. At the same time, both countries tend to balance their desires with compulsions in their foreign policies vis-à-vis the US, China, and India. Furthermore, Russia's traditional defence and economic ties with India are the main hindrance to the upgradation of relations between the two countries. However, these factors in the context of India are better understood when they are explained through the principle of utility maximization. Nonetheless, this article has applied the rational actor model of foreign policy to understand the relationship equation between Russia, Pakistan, and India. This article finds that Russia and Pakistan have advanced their bilateral relations when their interests converge, and both see each other’s utility maximization through cooperation. Hence, India, as a restraining factor in the Pakistan-Russia relationship, is better understood through the lens of the rational actor model, guided by the utility-maximization principle.