PAK-RUSSIAN RELATIONS: HISTORICAL LEGACIES AND NEW BEGINNINGS

Nazir Hussain* Quratulain Fatima**

Abstract

Pakistan-Russia relations have remained over-shadowed by Pakistan-United States union for most part of the history. Pak-Russia relations had some positives and much trumpeted negatives. Many opportunities to thaw the strained relations were missed either due to Pakistan’s pro-western stance or suspicions on Russian-Indian alliance. However, in the post 9/11 period, Pakistan as a frontline state in war against terror and Russian regional resurgence offers opportunity for revitalization of relations. There are strategic as well as economic opportunities available to both the countries in this era of economic and regional blocs. Both countries decision makers have avenues for cooperation especially in the post US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistan is anxious to maintain its importance as a key player in Afghanistan whereas Russia wants to represent its interests in the region by claiming a stake in the post-2014 Afghanistan scenario. New beginnings in Pak-Russia relations would primarily depend on the priorities of their decision makers.

Introduction

The historical legacy of Pakistan-Russia relations has been an interesting pattern of blow hot and blow cold. Pakistan interpreted its relation with Russia since 1947 through an India-centric prism. The past pattern of Pakistan-Russia interaction and future opportunities for revival of viable ties in the shadow of momentous Indo-Russian friendship and emerging Indo-US alliance is the subject of this paper. Foreign Policy is a tool to achieve the best self-interest of a state. Pakistan’s foreign policy in respect of Russia has always stopped short of achieving anything but self-interest. The 2014 post-US withdrawal Afghanistan scenario places Pakistan in a peculiar position where improved Russia-Pakistan relations are in the interest of both the countries. As India eye a lead role in the post-US withdrawal regional security environment, Pakistan needs to rethink for an alliance of convergence with Russia. Therefore, this paper endeavors to analyze Pak-Russia relations through historical, social, economic, political and military realms and explore the possibility of a new beginning in the fast changing regional and global security environment that opens window of opportunities for cooperation and interdependence.

Historical Analysis 

The “Great Game” being played between Britain and Russia dates back to the first Anglo-Afghan war (1839-1842). The Indian Subcontinent has contacts with the Soviet Union since the times of Bolshevik Revolution of the October, 1918. A number of Indians commuted between the British Raj India and the new Communist Russia. The famous “Peshawar Conspiracy Case” and other such cases shocked Britain to the extent of communist infiltration in the Indian Subcontinent. The India Congress party was also ideologically closer to the communist ideals of the Soviet Union. Partition of the Indian Subcontinent in 1947 was viewed with contempt by the then Soviet Union. It was considered as the British imperialist “Divide and Rule” policy going as far as terming the Muslim League as a ‘British Tool.’ Its resonance can still be found in the Pushtoon belt and some political parties of the North Western Frontier Province, now, Khyber Pakhton-Khuwah bordering Afghanistan. The Russian leaders did not extend facilitations upon independence to the new Governor General of Pakistan, Muhammad Ali Jinnah. The diplomatic relations between Pakistan and the Soviet Union were established in May, 1948 whereas Pakistan’s first ambassador to Moscow took charge as late as December, 1949 and his counterpart in Pakistan handed his credentials to the Governor General of Pakistan in March, 1950. Therefore, even the establishment of proper diplomatic contacts took a long time to develop fully. There were however, no fixed perceptions for Pakistan’s future policy makers particularly to join any specific camp.

Political and Diplomatic Relations

Pakistan in its infancy encountered economic challenges, dearth of civil and military assets, human resource constraints and constitutional problems and was in desperate need of aid. Pakistan was weighing its alliance probabilities in proportion to assistance offered for resolving its teething problems. Pakistan during this era started evaluating relations with the Soviet Union through the prism of its relations with India. In response to Indian Premier Nehru’s plan to visit the United States of America on May 7, 1949; the Soviet Union extended invitation to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan. This could have been the turning point of Pakistan-Soviet relations; however, Liaquat Ali khan instead chose to visit the US as a clear rebuff to the Soviet Union.
Pakistan‘s favorable response to the United States’ overtures paved the way for closer USSR-India ties. Pakistan at this juncture explicitly joined the Western Camp by signing the SEATO (1954) and CENTO (1955) alliances. The relations were strained at the time as Soviet Union considered Pakistan as friend of its enemy and consequently openly supported India on all issues especially Kashmir. During his tenure (1956-57) Prime Minister Husain Shaheed Suharwardy, despite being reputed as architect of the pro-west foreign policy of Pakistan tried to improve its relations with the Soviet Union. His efforts were, however, stalled due to Pakistan’s obvious encampment with the United Sates during the simmering Cold War and his own resignation in 1957.
The infamous U-2 incident of the US spy plane flying reconnaissance missions from a Pakistani Airbase in Peshawar over the Soviet airspace was a glaring example of miscalculation of Soviet response and its own vulnerability by Pakistan. The Soviets were able to shot down the U-2 plane on 1st May, 1960 and discovered Pakistan’s connivance to the US plans. The Soviet president, Nikita Khurushev threatened to mark Pakistan as a bombing target if any more missions are to be flown from its soil against the Soviets. Pakistan instead of safeguarding its own sovereignty and pursuing its national security interests played in the hands of the Western Alliance and infuriated the next door giant super power.
Pakistan‘s relations during this period were usually seen in the backdrop of 1965 Indo-Pak war. Pakistan was left in the cold when in the 1965 war between Pakistan and India, the US did not support Pakistan despite Pakistan‘s signatory state status in SEATO and CENTO. The Soviet Union overtly emerged as the biggest supplier of weapons and military hardware to India. After the 1965 war, the arms race between India and Pakistan became even more asymmetrical and India was outdistancing Pakistan with a big margin. The Soviet Union did intervene to broker peace between Pakistan and India and facilitated the ceasefire agreement known as ‘Tashkent Agreement.” Pakistan’s reluctance to indulge with the Soviet Union was partly effected by its close ties with China; as by 1961, China and Soviet Union were at logger heads upon the respective versions of communism.
The 1971 war was a reality shock for the West allied Pakistan when it was again disappointed by its Western allies. The Soviet Union after signing the ‘Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation” with India played an important role in the 1971 Indo-Pak war. Soviet Union then openly supported India by ensuring its naval presence in the region. Soviet Union sympathized with the Mukti Bahni and saw the creation of Bangladesh as an opportunity to damage its opponents; the United States and China. Interestingly, several decades later in 2012, in an official press release by the Russian Consulate-General in Karachi, the Russian ambassador remarked that former Soviet stance against Pakistan in 1971, was a “somewhat embarrassing for our relations.”   
In the aftermath of traumatic defeat of 1971 war and the betrayal of Western powers, Pakistan under Z.A Bhutto pursued the policy of “Look East” and active “Bilateralism.” This era marked the brief improvement of Pakistan-Russia relations. In March 1972, Z.A Bhutto paid a state visit to the Soviet Union, becoming the first prime minister to visit the super power since the independence of Pakistan in 1947. From 1973 till 1979, both countries enjoyed a strong relationship which also benefited the Soviet Union. This era saw Pakistan Steel Mills being financed into existence by the Soviets. However, this cooperation between the two states was short lived and got halted by the results and aftermath of 1977 elections in Pakistan.
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was another crucial point in Pakistan-USSR relations, it is generally reported that the Soviet Union conveyed to Pakistan that it does not intend to cross the Durand Line and Pakistan remaining neutral will be seen positively. Many believe that Pakistan’s use of Mujahedeen against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan was in retaliation to its unflinching support to India especially in 1965 and 1971 wars.
Upon Soviet Union‘s disintegration, the successor state Russian Federation went into the downward spiral of security and economic difficulties. The same continued till 2000, however, President Vladimir Putin was able to turn around the situation and make Russia economically stable. Russia understood the value of peace for a thriving economy and resolved its long standing border conflicts with China and Turkey.
In 1994-1995, Russian Federation and Pakistan could have improved ties during the Benazir Bhutto‘s government, however this opportunity was lost when Pakistan recognized Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan and created delay in resolving issues of Soviet POWs. At the time of nuclear tests by both Pakistan and India in 1998, Russian Federation did not immediately condemn Pakistan indicating a soft stance towards country’s security concerns. In April 1999, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif paid an important state visit to the Kremlin, which was the first trip to Moscow by a Pakistani Prime minister in 25 years. Russians also welcomed the warming up of relations between India and Pakistan through the Lahore Declaration in 1999.
In the aftermath of 9/11, Pakistan‘s decision to join war on terror was welcomed by the Russian Federation. Russian Federation stayed out of any NATO or ISAF contingent in Afghanistan; it only conducted joint operations to curb narcotic smuggling with the ISAF forces. In February 2003, President Musharraf’s visit to Moscow resulted in the establishment of Joint Working Group on Counter Terrorism, Joint Working Group on Strategic Stability and Inter Governmental Joint Commission. Since then both countries have worked in coordination to combat narcotic trade.
Relations between Pakistan and Russian Federation witnessed another positive note when Pakistan caught Chechen Terrorists from the Pak-Afghan border in 2004 and handed them over to the Russian forces. In 2007, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov became the first Russian Prime Minister ever to visit Pakistan in the post-Soviet-era in 38 years.
In 2011, Russian Federation openly supported Pakistan‘s aspiration to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Pakistan returned the favor by supporting Russian Federation’s aspirations for the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) membership. In 2012, the Russian President Vladimir Putin cancelled his much anticipated visit of Pakistan, reportedly under Western and Indian lobby influence. In his place Foreign Minister of Russian Federation, Sergei Lavrov visited Pakistan and signed “Memorandum of Understandings” (MOUs) with Pakistan on metallurgy, energy production and railroad transportation. India also acknowledges the fact that Pakistan-Russian Federation relations are improving in the backdrop of India-US closer relations. Pakistan and Russian Federation celebrated 65 years of diplomatic relations in 2013 with the commencement of strategic dialogue on bilateral issues and agreed on comprehensive cooperation. In order to further soften the relations as an act of solidarity President Vladimir Putin extended a letter of condolence to President Asif Ali Zardari over Shia killings in Quetta in 2013. In April 2014, a Pakistani parliamentary delegation led by Chairman Senate, visited Russia and held meetings with the Russian leadership. Senate Chairman, Nayyer Hussain Bokhari said that Pakistan and Russia have convergence of views on most of the international and regional issues. The Russian foreign minister, Sergy Lavrov reciprocated by saying that “Russia gives high importance to its relations with Pakistan as it is an important country in the region and Muslim World.”  

Economic and Trade Relations

Pakistan‘s economic relations with the Soviet Union has been rather lukewarm since the inception of Pakistan. Soviet Union and Pakistan established trade relations in the early 1950s when Soviet Union agreed to import cotton, jute and leather. Soviet Union bought Pakistani jute in exchange for 150,000 tons of wheat in summer of 1952 amid famine fears in Pakistan. In 1958, Pakistan and Soviet Union finally established an oil consortium, Pakistan Oilfields, and expressing interests in establishing the country’s first steel mill. In 1961, Soviet Union gave a loan of 27 million Rubles to Pakistan for oil and gas exploration, which later enabled the establishment of Oil and Gas Development Organization in Pakistan.
The Soviet Union provided technical expertise and extended a loan of $200 million to Pakistan for the establishment of Pakistan Steel Mills in 1972 which was to be repaid in kind by Pakistan. This arrangement was sabotaged by some Pakistani companies that over-invoiced the low quality goods and eventually Soviet Union refused to abide by the arrangement. This outstanding loan remained a bitter tinge in the Russian Federation-Pakistan Relations. Russian Federation has again pledged to finance up-gradation of Pakistan Steel Mills in 2012. The bilateral trade between Pakistan and Russia lingered at $80 million has swelled up to $542 Million in 2012.

Volume of Bilateral Trade

Source: Ministry of Commerce, Government of Pakistan, 2013

Despite trade opportunities, the exports from Pakistan to Russian Federation $210 million (2012) are a meager 0.04% of the total Russian trade volume. Similarly, imports by Pakistan from Russian Federation at $332 million (2012) stands at 0.07% of the total Russian trade volume. Pakistan has been the biggest exporter of potato to the Russian Federation in 2010-2011. It exported 125,000 tons of potato to Russian Federation. Pakistan is a major exporter of “Kinnow” to Russian Federation. There is a huge potential of textile, leather goods, vegetables and fruits. The main issue hampering the export of goods is the quality, non professional attitude of exporters and the bureaucratic hurdles at the government level.

Major Exports of Pakistan to Russian Federation (2012)

Source: Ministry of Commerce, Government of Pakistan, 2013.

Major Imports of Pakistan from Russian Federation (2012)

Source: Ministry of Commerce, Government of Pakistan, 2013.

In the aftermath of 2010 floods in Pakistan, the Russian Federation decreased the custom duty up to 35% on Pakistani goods as a goodwill gesture. As measures to boast trade, two Pakistani trading houses have been opened in Saint Petersburg. A trading house is also established in Moscow to promote Pakistani products. Pakistan Russia Business Forum (PRBF) was established in 2009 to promote commerce and tourism. Another such forum, “Business Council for Promotion of Trade with Pakistan” is quite effectively working since its establishment in 2011. Also in order to enhance economic cooperation between Pakistan and Russia a governmental commission has been formed.
In terms of Russian investment in Pakistan, it offered various options; financing the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline and expansion of Pakistan Steel Mills production from 1 to 3 million tons per annum. It also offered to finance various energy projects in Pakistan such as Tarbella expansion, Diamer Bhasha Dam, CASA-1000, up-gradation of Gaddu, Muzafargarh and Jamshoro Power Plants.

Social Relations

In the early 1950s Pakistan and Soviet Union shared many social and cultural activities. Their cultural troupes visited each other’s countries and film shows were held. The Soviet Union also provided economic and technical assistance in social sector development, agricultural productivity such as pest control, desalination and soil erosion, and flood control. The Soviet Union assisted to put into operation 1000kw medium-wave broadcasting station near Islamabad which went on to become the major radio station of the country. The Soviets also supplied three medium-wave and two short-wave length transmitters. A Soviet news magazine Tulu was regularly published from Karachi since 1967; however it got discontinued in 1982 in the backdrop of Afghan war.
Pakistan’s mega city Karachi used to be a hub for the Soviet tourists till 1990s. There were 8 flights daily from Moscow to Karachi to accommodate this boom of visitors. The trend however died down with deteriorating situation of the city and development of Dubai as an alternate economic hub. Russian Federation provided aid to the people of Pakistan in the aftermath of 2005 earthquake and 2010 Floods. Pakistan receives enthusiastic Russian and Central Asian climbers every year in a bid to climb the perilous mountain K-2. One of the posh restaurants of the Russian Federation’s capital Moscow is “Gandhara.” It is a Pakistani restaurant that features Buddha Statues from the Gandhara Civilization along with Pakistani cuisines. Russian Federation has a native 13 million Muslim community that have their natural sympathies towards the Muslims of Pakistan.
Around 2000 Pakistani community is settled in the Russian Federation including 500 students. The Moscow State University has an Urdu Faculty and Punjab University has signed an agreement on student exchange program with Moscow State University. The detail of the students and respective universities is tabulated below.

University Wise Distribution of Students

Source: Higher Education Commission, Pakistan Embassy in Moscow, 2013.

“An Association of Pakistani Graduates Russia and Commonwealth of Independent States” is active in Pakistan. Subsequently, NUML University, Islamabad has a Russian faculty as well. A Pakistan Study Center is also established in Moscow.
Compilation of the first Urdu-Russian dictionary by Pakistan-based Russian Dr. Tashmirza Khalmirev in 2012 is a positive step to lower the language barrier between Russian Federation, CIS and Pakistan. Voice of Russia that broadcasts for Pakistan in Urdu and runs a similar website conducted an ‘All Pakistan Voice of Russia Conference’ in Lahore during December, 2013 to bring lost listeners back. Shahslik is a famous dish in Pakistan with Central Asian-Russian origin, which is made with meat and vegetables on skewers made of wood.

Strategic and Military Relations

In 1967, Government of Pakistan acquired land for the construction of “Heavy Electrical Complex” with the possible funding by the Soviet Union at Taxila. The project, however, could not achieve completion. Pakistan, despite its desire could not develop any tangible military ties with the Soviet Union, mainly due to the Cold War politics and alliance systems in South Asia.
In 2001, Russia willingly agreed to launch Pakistan’s satellite, Badr from its Baikonur Launch Station for the lowest possible charges. Russian Federation has two major problems that link it directly or indirectly to Pakistan. First is Afghanistan’s narcotics trade that ends up in Russian Federation before trickling down to the rest of Europe. The other issue is the illegal immigrants. Illegal immigrants from Pakistan use Russian Federation as a launching pad to enter Europe. Russian Federation is looking forward to enhanced cooperation in these critical matters in the post-2014 withdrawal scenario Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Ashfaq Pervaiz Kiani’s visit to Russian Federation in 2012 is seen as a positive step towards Pakistan-Russian Federation cooperation in the post withdrawal Afghanistan. The Chief of Pakistan Air Force, Air Marshal Tahir Rafique Butt also visited Russia in 2012. Pakistan has shown interest in buying MI-35, MI-17 helicopters, engines for JF-17 program, missile defense systems, and submarines. In the same connection, Commander of the Russian Air Force visited Pakistan on 17 April, 2013 to discuss military deals for the first time in the history of Russian-Pakistani relations. The same was indicated in the words of Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, during his 2012 visit to Pakistan; “Russia is unlikely to sell Islamabad an air defense system or fighter aircraft, still, dual-use systems, such as the MI-17 helicopter, could be supplied, in addition to combat training and the exchange of military experts.” In early 2014, as an important strategic move, Russian Federation started negotiation to sell MI-35 helicopters to Pakistan, lifting a de-facto arms embargo on Pakistan despite implicit displeasure of its long standing ally India.
The Russian Federation can also provide greater insight to the Pakistani counterparts on the war on terrorism, due to their experience with the war in Chechnya. Russian Federation encountered the same situation in the context of war on terrorism in Chechnya and overcame that. This cooperation can be very beneficial for both the countries.

Future Prospects

Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, stated in 2012 that “Pakistan exerts huge influence over Afghanistan. Moscow is racking its brains over how to ensure the safety and security of the southern borders of the CIS when U.S. and NATO troops finally pull out of Afghanistan. If Russia continues to snub Pakistan in favor of India, it would ultimately run contrary to the interests of Russia's security.”
In December 2014, Pakistan and Russia signed $1.7 billion energy deal to lay LNG pipeline between Karachi and Lahore during the Joint Commission meetings in Islamabad and Moscow. Also during the visit of Russian Defence Minister, General Sergey Shoygu to Pakistan in November 2014 a defence and military cooperation deal was signed to provide MI-35 helicopters to Pakistan. Russia has already lifted self-imposed embargos on selling arms to Pakistan and they conveyed Pakistan about the readiness of Russian companies for discussion with the state and private companies of Pakistan for possibility of supply of Russian produced aviation equipment, including Sukhoi S-100 Civilian aircraft, An Tu-404 CM, MS-21, and helicopters. Russian Military Companies are interested in supplying commercial/civilian version helicopters for needs of the Government of Pakistan as well as commercial organizational, and supplying special “Tiger” armored vehicles to Pakistan.
The post-2014 Afghanistan is seen in comparison to the civil war scenario after the Russian withdrawal in 1989. The spillover effects will harm Pakistan the most due to its porous border with Afghanistan and shared legacy of drugs and violence amid acceptance of Afghan refugees. Pakistan cannot burden its economy any more with the excessive baggage of refugees and allied evils as it once did in the post-Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. The internal situation amidst war on terror as a non-NATO ally of USA does not allow Pakistan to bear any further resurgent wave of terrorism.
Furthermore, the US inclination to support India as a regional leader in South Asia has a decisive effect on the balance of power in the region. China, Russia and Pakistan eye this situation with clear suspicion. Here the convergence of interest arises in the China-Russia-Pakistan triad. After successful overcoming the economic meltdown of post-Cold War, Russian economic recovery is an evidence of its commitment with economic prosperity. Pakistan has a huge potential market in Russian economy expandable to further into Central Asian countries for its textile, leather goods and agriculture produce especially vegetables and fruits. Consequently, Russia can tap a healthy market for mechanical goods, metals and chemical products in Pakistan. Both countries interact at the common forums of SCO and OECD; the same platforms can be used for enhancing bilateral trade relations. Additionally, Pakistan with appropriate strategy can proceed to acquire dual use systems like MI-17 and transport vehicles and pave the way for some ice breaking, which may lead to acquisition of more sophisticated military technology from Russia. Russia has successfully curbed the Chechen rebels and has Cold War experience of military force fighting the irregular armed forces in Afghanistan which is today’s Taliban. An exchange of experts between the two states can greatly benefit Pakistan’s military expertise in the ensuing war on terror.
The US interest in the Silk Route restoration as an effort to access the natural gas and oil reserves of the Eurasian Caspian Sea is being perceived by Russia as a move to hamper Great Russian Resurgence. This situation is emerging as Russia on the one hand has rallied the Central Asian Republics in alliance and on the other hand has seen improving relations with China by expanding trade and resolving border disputes. Pakistan can also contemplate an access to warm waters for Russia with the help of China in return for trade concessions and much needed financial assistance. In the wake of new “Energy Great Game” in the region and its ensuing energy crisis, Pakistan can revive the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline which already has the support of USA and deems a fair chance of completion with enhanced Russian support along with the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline.
Russia is also aspiring to maintain military bases in the post-2014 scenario in Afghanistan. The reason is its concern about terrorist threats and narcotic trade emerging from Afghanistan and destabilizing Russia and Central Asia. The same concern is shared by Pakistan being immediate neighbor of Afghanistan and frontline state for war against terrorism. Pakistan needs to protect its stakes in Afghanistan as much as Russia wants to increase its role in the post-2014 regional politics.

Conclusion

In the post 2014 withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia is anxious to find itself a role in the regional security milieu. It also understands that Pakistan is a major stake holder in this renewed great game. Russia has expressed its views that it cannot compromise its interest in the region for the sake of India. The military visits and warming up of strategic relations between Pakistan and Russian Federation is a step towards better relations by both the sides. The era of military alliances has lapsed; today is the world of economic and trade alliances. Russian Federation is a host to 13 million native Muslim population and this factor can be used as an advantage for Pakistan-Russian Federation Relations. Pakistan capitalizing on this strength can create strong social and economic ties with the Russian Federation. Pakistan has a huge potential market for its agriculture produce, textile, leather and sport goods in Russian Federation and Central Asian states. Pakistan is aspiring for permanent membership in the SCO and Russian Federation has hinted openly to support Pakistan’s contention. The cooperation in SCO can become a new era in ‘Look East’ policy for Pakistan. The presence of India, China, Afghanistan and Central Asian states render SCO as an effective platform for economic and trade cooperation. Pakistan‘s geostrategic location especially Gwadar port is assessed by Russian Federation as an ideal access to the warm sea. Russian Federation is visualizing a mega advance in the future as the “Gulf-Bering Strait” railroad and Pakistan is its route to the warm waters.
Foreign policy approach of Pakistan should be self-interest rather than India centric. Arch rivals like USA and China, China and Russia, China and India are improving relations amongst themselves and finding convergence in divergence; Pakistan must also learn from these examples of changing perceptions of the world. A diversification of its basket of allies in view of 2014 United States withdrawal from Afghanistan is the need of the time. Russian Federation is also anxious to play an important role in the changing geostrategic realm. Pakistan should keep self-interest before all and must formulate its foreign policy keeping in mind the importance of better relations with the Russian Federation.

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